Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption

In Lebanon, electric power is becoming the main energy form relied upon in all economic sectors of the country. Also, the time series of electrical energy consumption in Lebanon is unique due to intermittent power outages and increasing demand. Given these facts, it is critical to model and forecast...

وصف كامل

محفوظ في:
التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
المؤلف الرئيسي: Saab, Samer (author)
مؤلفون آخرون: Badr, Elie (author), Nasr, George (author)
التنسيق: article
منشور في: 2001
الوصول للمادة أونلاين:http://hdl.handle.net/10725/3161
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(00)00049-9
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544200000499
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author Saab, Samer
author2 Badr, Elie
Nasr, George
author2_role author
author
author_facet Saab, Samer
Badr, Elie
Nasr, George
author_role author
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Saab, Samer
Badr, Elie
Nasr, George
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2001
2016-02-23T08:36:29Z
2016-02-23T08:36:29Z
2016-02-23
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv 0360-5442
http://hdl.handle.net/10725/3161
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(00)00049-9
Saab, S., Badr, E., & Nasr, G. (2001). Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption: the case of electricity in Lebanon. Energy, 26(1), 1-14.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544200000499
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv en
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Energy
dc.rights.*.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
the case of electricity in Lebanon
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
description In Lebanon, electric power is becoming the main energy form relied upon in all economic sectors of the country. Also, the time series of electrical energy consumption in Lebanon is unique due to intermittent power outages and increasing demand. Given these facts, it is critical to model and forecast electrical energy consumption. The aim of this study is to investigate different univariate-modeling methodologies and try, at least, a one-step ahead forecast for monthly electric energy consumption in Lebanon. Three univariate models are used, namely, the autoregressive, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and a novel configuration combining an AR(1) with a highpass filter. The forecasting performance of each model is assessed using different measures. The AR(1)/highpass filter model yields the best forecast for this peculiar energy data.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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id LAURepo_2a35e33fab543b7979ad15cde7bdaa4f
identifier_str_mv 0360-5442
Saab, S., Badr, E., & Nasr, G. (2001). Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption: the case of electricity in Lebanon. Energy, 26(1), 1-14.
language_invalid_str_mv en
network_acronym_str LAURepo
network_name_str Lebanese American University repository
oai_identifier_str oai:laur.lau.edu.lb:10725/3161
publishDate 2001
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spelling Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumptionthe case of electricity in LebanonSaab, SamerBadr, ElieNasr, GeorgeIn Lebanon, electric power is becoming the main energy form relied upon in all economic sectors of the country. Also, the time series of electrical energy consumption in Lebanon is unique due to intermittent power outages and increasing demand. Given these facts, it is critical to model and forecast electrical energy consumption. The aim of this study is to investigate different univariate-modeling methodologies and try, at least, a one-step ahead forecast for monthly electric energy consumption in Lebanon. Three univariate models are used, namely, the autoregressive, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and a novel configuration combining an AR(1) with a highpass filter. The forecasting performance of each model is assessed using different measures. The AR(1)/highpass filter model yields the best forecast for this peculiar energy data.PublishedN/A2016-02-23T08:36:29Z2016-02-23T08:36:29Z20012016-02-23Articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article0360-5442http://hdl.handle.net/10725/3161http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(00)00049-9Saab, S., Badr, E., & Nasr, G. (2001). Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption: the case of electricity in Lebanon. Energy, 26(1), 1-14.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544200000499enEnergyinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:laur.lau.edu.lb:10725/31612019-07-25T10:15:17Z
spellingShingle Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
Saab, Samer
status_str publishedVersion
title Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
title_full Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
title_fullStr Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
title_full_unstemmed Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
title_short Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
title_sort Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption
url http://hdl.handle.net/10725/3161
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(00)00049-9
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544200000499