A risk-sensitive markup decision model
Construction risk can be associated with different factors such as the size and complexity of the project, the experience of the contractor with similar type of work, unexpected weather conditions, unexpected ground conditions, or even unanticipated market changes. Failure to estimate the uncertaint...
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| المؤلف الرئيسي: | |
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| مؤلفون آخرون: | |
| التنسيق: | conferenceObject |
| منشور في: |
2017
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| الوصول للمادة أونلاين: | http://hdl.handle.net/10725/5624 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784412329.021#sthash.Js8vJ0Na.dpuf http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.php http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784412329.021 |
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| _version_ | 1864513466129186816 |
|---|---|
| author | Awwad, Rita |
| author2 | Ioannou, Photios |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Awwad, Rita Ioannou, Photios |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Awwad, Rita Ioannou, Photios |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2017-05-09T10:29:33Z 2017-05-09T10:29:33Z 2017-05-09 |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10725/5624 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784412329.021#sthash.Js8vJ0Na.dpuf Awwad, R., & Ioannou, P. (2012). A risk-sensitive markup decision model. In Construction Research Congress 2012: Construction Challenges in a Flat World (pp. 199-208). http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.php http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784412329.021 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | en |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | ASCE |
| dc.rights.*.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | A risk-sensitive markup decision model |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Conference Paper / Proceeding info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject |
| description | Construction risk can be associated with different factors such as the size and complexity of the project, the experience of the contractor with similar type of work, unexpected weather conditions, unexpected ground conditions, or even unanticipated market changes. Failure to estimate the uncertainties that accompany a specific project often leads to a delayed project with cost overruns and compromised quality. Therefore, when bidding on a certain project, a contractor has to consider the possibility and the magnitude of construction risks involved, and then decide on its optimum markup accordingly. Cost uncertainty is not only an issue at the conceptual phase of a project but continues even into the construction phase. In addition to the uncertainty in the final project cost, the attitude of the contractor towards risk taking is of equal or even more importance in choosing the optimum markup and the resulting bid price for a project. This paper uses established principles of decision analysis and utility theory to develop a risk-sensitive bidding model that aims at determining the contractor's optimal markup value for a project given his risk attitude and his uncertainty about the final project cost. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted through a numerical example to illustrate the effect of risk aversion and cost variance on the optimum markup for the competitive low bid method |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | conferenceObject |
| id | LAURepo_74ff4e9ad67a91e7c63c84e777e4fdb0 |
| identifier_str_mv | Awwad, R., & Ioannou, P. (2012). A risk-sensitive markup decision model. In Construction Research Congress 2012: Construction Challenges in a Flat World (pp. 199-208). |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | LAURepo |
| network_name_str | Lebanese American University repository |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:laur.lau.edu.lb:10725/5624 |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | ASCE |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
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| spelling | A risk-sensitive markup decision modelAwwad, RitaIoannou, PhotiosConstruction risk can be associated with different factors such as the size and complexity of the project, the experience of the contractor with similar type of work, unexpected weather conditions, unexpected ground conditions, or even unanticipated market changes. Failure to estimate the uncertainties that accompany a specific project often leads to a delayed project with cost overruns and compromised quality. Therefore, when bidding on a certain project, a contractor has to consider the possibility and the magnitude of construction risks involved, and then decide on its optimum markup accordingly. Cost uncertainty is not only an issue at the conceptual phase of a project but continues even into the construction phase. In addition to the uncertainty in the final project cost, the attitude of the contractor towards risk taking is of equal or even more importance in choosing the optimum markup and the resulting bid price for a project. This paper uses established principles of decision analysis and utility theory to develop a risk-sensitive bidding model that aims at determining the contractor's optimal markup value for a project given his risk attitude and his uncertainty about the final project cost. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted through a numerical example to illustrate the effect of risk aversion and cost variance on the optimum markup for the competitive low bid methodN/AASCE2017-05-09T10:29:33Z2017-05-09T10:29:33Z2017-05-09Conference Paper / Proceedinginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjecthttp://hdl.handle.net/10725/5624http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784412329.021#sthash.Js8vJ0Na.dpufAwwad, R., & Ioannou, P. (2012). A risk-sensitive markup decision model. In Construction Research Congress 2012: Construction Challenges in a Flat World (pp. 199-208).http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.phphttp://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784412329.021eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:laur.lau.edu.lb:10725/56242021-03-19T10:03:19Z |
| spellingShingle | A risk-sensitive markup decision model Awwad, Rita |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | A risk-sensitive markup decision model |
| title_full | A risk-sensitive markup decision model |
| title_fullStr | A risk-sensitive markup decision model |
| title_full_unstemmed | A risk-sensitive markup decision model |
| title_short | A risk-sensitive markup decision model |
| title_sort | A risk-sensitive markup decision model |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10725/5624 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784412329.021#sthash.Js8vJ0Na.dpuf http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.php http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784412329.021 |