Asymmetries in the responses of regional job flows to oil price shocks
This paper studies the effect of oil price innovations on manufacturing job flows across U.S. states. First, I estimate a nonlinear structural equation model and compute impulse response functions by Monte Carlo integration. I find asymmetries in the responses of job flows to positive and negative o...
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| Format: | article |
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2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10725/6471 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12502 http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.php https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecin.12502 |
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| Summary: | This paper studies the effect of oil price innovations on manufacturing job flows across U.S. states. First, I estimate a nonlinear structural equation model and compute impulse response functions by Monte Carlo integration. I find asymmetries in the responses of job flows to positive and negative oil price innovations. Yet, these asymmetries do not pass a test of symmetry on the impulse responses, especially after accounting for data mining. Third, I use a test for the absence of job reallocation to evaluate whether an unexpected increase in the real price of oil price triggers an important change in job reallocation. I find that oil price shocks have limited regional allocative effects. (JEL E24, E32, Q43) |
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