Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India
<h3>Background</h3><p dir="ltr"> In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology. </p><h3>Methods...
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2019
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| _version_ | 1864513521124900864 |
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| author | Susanne F Awad (18618622) |
| author2 | Peijue Huangfu (11619726) Houssein H Ayoub (17704359) Fiona Pearson (4607545) Soha R Dargham (9991416) Julia A Critchley (16272368) Laith J Abu-Raddad (11868161) |
| author2_role | author author author author author author |
| author_facet | Susanne F Awad (18618622) Peijue Huangfu (11619726) Houssein H Ayoub (17704359) Fiona Pearson (4607545) Soha R Dargham (9991416) Julia A Critchley (16272368) Laith J Abu-Raddad (11868161) |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Susanne F Awad (18618622) Peijue Huangfu (11619726) Houssein H Ayoub (17704359) Fiona Pearson (4607545) Soha R Dargham (9991416) Julia A Critchley (16272368) Laith J Abu-Raddad (11868161) |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | 10.7189/jogh.09.020415 |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Forecasting_the_impact_of_diabetes_mellitus_on_tuberculosis_disease_incidence_and_mortality_in_India/25907545 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Biomedical and clinical sciences Clinical sciences Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Human society Demography Diabetes mellitus (DM) Tuberculosis (TB) Epidemiology Mathematical model Impact assessment Population attributable fraction Sensitivity analysis |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Text Journal contribution info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion text contribution to journal |
| description | <h3>Background</h3><p dir="ltr"> In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology. </p><h3>Methods </h3><p dir="ltr">An age-structured TB-DM dynamical mathematical model was developed and analyzed to assess the DM-on-TB impact. The model was calibrated using a literature review and meta-analyses. The DM-on-TB impact was analyzed using population attributable fraction metrics. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by accommodating less conservative effect sizes for the TB-DM interactions, by factoring the age-dependence of the TB-DM association, and by assuming different TB disease incidence rate trajectories. </p><h3>Results</h3><p dir="ltr"> In 1990, 11.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI)=6.3%-14.4%) of new TB disease incident cases were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 21.9% (95% UI=12.1%-26.4%) in 2017, and 33.3% (95% UI=19.0%-44.1%) in 2050. Similarly, in 1990, 14.5% (95% UI=9.5%- 18.2%) of TB-related deaths were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 28.9% (95% UI=18.9%-34.1%) in 2017, and 42.8% (95% UI=28.7%-53.1%) in 2050. The largest impacts originated from the effects of DM on TB disease progression and infectiousness. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the impact could be even greater. </p><h3>Conclusions </h3><p dir="ltr">The burgeoning DM epidemic is predicted to become a leading driver of TB disease incidence and mortality over the coming decades. By 2050, at least one-third of TB incidence and almost half of TB mortality in India will be attributed to DM. This is likely generalizable to other Asian Pacific countries with similar TB-DM burdens. Targeting the impact of the increasing DM burden on TB control is critical to achieving the goal of TB elimination by 2050.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Journal of Global Health<br>License: <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.7189/jogh.09.020415" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.7189/jogh.09.020415</a></p> |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| id | Manara2_5d83f5b684f732d7a6d1b31275919d61 |
| identifier_str_mv | 10.7189/jogh.09.020415 |
| network_acronym_str | Manara2 |
| network_name_str | Manara2 |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:figshare.com:article/25907545 |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 |
| spelling | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in IndiaSusanne F Awad (18618622)Peijue Huangfu (11619726)Houssein H Ayoub (17704359)Fiona Pearson (4607545)Soha R Dargham (9991416)Julia A Critchley (16272368)Laith J Abu-Raddad (11868161)Biomedical and clinical sciencesClinical sciencesHealth sciencesEpidemiologyPublic healthHuman societyDemographyDiabetes mellitus (DM)Tuberculosis (TB)EpidemiologyMathematical modelImpact assessmentPopulation attributable fractionSensitivity analysis<h3>Background</h3><p dir="ltr"> In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology. </p><h3>Methods </h3><p dir="ltr">An age-structured TB-DM dynamical mathematical model was developed and analyzed to assess the DM-on-TB impact. The model was calibrated using a literature review and meta-analyses. The DM-on-TB impact was analyzed using population attributable fraction metrics. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by accommodating less conservative effect sizes for the TB-DM interactions, by factoring the age-dependence of the TB-DM association, and by assuming different TB disease incidence rate trajectories. </p><h3>Results</h3><p dir="ltr"> In 1990, 11.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI)=6.3%-14.4%) of new TB disease incident cases were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 21.9% (95% UI=12.1%-26.4%) in 2017, and 33.3% (95% UI=19.0%-44.1%) in 2050. Similarly, in 1990, 14.5% (95% UI=9.5%- 18.2%) of TB-related deaths were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 28.9% (95% UI=18.9%-34.1%) in 2017, and 42.8% (95% UI=28.7%-53.1%) in 2050. The largest impacts originated from the effects of DM on TB disease progression and infectiousness. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the impact could be even greater. </p><h3>Conclusions </h3><p dir="ltr">The burgeoning DM epidemic is predicted to become a leading driver of TB disease incidence and mortality over the coming decades. By 2050, at least one-third of TB incidence and almost half of TB mortality in India will be attributed to DM. This is likely generalizable to other Asian Pacific countries with similar TB-DM burdens. Targeting the impact of the increasing DM burden on TB control is critical to achieving the goal of TB elimination by 2050.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Journal of Global Health<br>License: <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.7189/jogh.09.020415" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.7189/jogh.09.020415</a></p>2019-12-01T00:00:00ZTextJournal contributioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontextcontribution to journal10.7189/jogh.09.020415https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Forecasting_the_impact_of_diabetes_mellitus_on_tuberculosis_disease_incidence_and_mortality_in_India/25907545CC BY 4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:figshare.com:article/259075452019-12-01T00:00:00Z |
| spellingShingle | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India Susanne F Awad (18618622) Biomedical and clinical sciences Clinical sciences Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Human society Demography Diabetes mellitus (DM) Tuberculosis (TB) Epidemiology Mathematical model Impact assessment Population attributable fraction Sensitivity analysis |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India |
| title_full | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India |
| title_short | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India |
| title_sort | Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India |
| topic | Biomedical and clinical sciences Clinical sciences Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Human society Demography Diabetes mellitus (DM) Tuberculosis (TB) Epidemiology Mathematical model Impact assessment Population attributable fraction Sensitivity analysis |