Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study
<h3>Background </h3><p dir="ltr">Direct-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was in...
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2023
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| _version_ | 1864513507557376000 |
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| author | Houssein H. Ayoub (9262512) |
| author2 | Sarwat Mahmud (4557208) Hiam Chemaitelly (439114) Laith J. Abu-Raddad (9262524) |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Houssein H. Ayoub (9262512) Sarwat Mahmud (4557208) Hiam Chemaitelly (439114) Laith J. Abu-Raddad (9262524) |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Houssein H. Ayoub (9262512) Sarwat Mahmud (4557208) Hiam Chemaitelly (439114) Laith J. Abu-Raddad (9262524) |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-07-13T09:00:00Z |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1187786 |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Treatment_as_prevention_for_hepatitis_C_virus_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_a_modeling_study/26808019 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Biological sciences Microbiology Biomedical and clinical sciences Clinical sciences Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Middle East and North Africa hepatitis C virus incidence mathematical model treatment as prevention |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Text Journal contribution info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion text contribution to journal |
| description | <h3>Background </h3><p dir="ltr">Direct-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was investigated in 19 MENA countries. </p><h3>Methods </h3><p dir="ltr">An age-structured mathematical model was used to assess program impact using epidemiologic and programming measures. The model was fitted to a database of systematically gathered HCV antibody prevalence data. Two main scenarios were investigated for the treatment roll-out to achieve (i) 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030, and (ii) incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years by 2030. </p><h3>Results </h3><p dir="ltr">In the target-80%-incidence-reduction scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 2,610 in Lebanon to 180,416 in Sudan with a median of 53,079, and treatment coverage ranged between 40.2 and 78.4% with a median of 60.4%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection ranged between 0.0 and 0.3% with a median of 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, ranged between 0.9 and 16.3 with a median of 3.2. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 47.8 and 81.9% with a median of 68.5%, and number of averted infections ranged between 401 and 68,499 with a median of 8,703. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.7 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 6.5. In the target incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 3,470 in Lebanon to 211,912 in Sudan with a median of 54,479, and treatment coverage ranged between 55.5 and 95.9% with a median of 87.5%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection was less than 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, reached less than 1. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 61.0 and 97.5% with a median of 90.7%, and number of averted infections ranged between 559 and 104,315 with a median of 12,158. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.3 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 5.5. </p><h3>Conclusion </h3><p dir="ltr">HCV-TasP is an effective and indispensable prevention intervention to control MENA’s HCV epidemic and to achieve elimination by 2030.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Frontiers in Public Health<br>License: <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1187786" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1187786</a></p> |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| id | Manara2_acbc9ee2de7aad0be5c8207c1f4644b2 |
| identifier_str_mv | 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1187786 |
| network_acronym_str | Manara2 |
| network_name_str | Manara2 |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:figshare.com:article/26808019 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 |
| spelling | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling studyHoussein H. Ayoub (9262512)Sarwat Mahmud (4557208)Hiam Chemaitelly (439114)Laith J. Abu-Raddad (9262524)Biological sciencesMicrobiologyBiomedical and clinical sciencesClinical sciencesHealth sciencesEpidemiologyPublic healthMiddle East and North Africahepatitis C virusincidencemathematical modeltreatment as prevention<h3>Background </h3><p dir="ltr">Direct-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was investigated in 19 MENA countries. </p><h3>Methods </h3><p dir="ltr">An age-structured mathematical model was used to assess program impact using epidemiologic and programming measures. The model was fitted to a database of systematically gathered HCV antibody prevalence data. Two main scenarios were investigated for the treatment roll-out to achieve (i) 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030, and (ii) incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years by 2030. </p><h3>Results </h3><p dir="ltr">In the target-80%-incidence-reduction scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 2,610 in Lebanon to 180,416 in Sudan with a median of 53,079, and treatment coverage ranged between 40.2 and 78.4% with a median of 60.4%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection ranged between 0.0 and 0.3% with a median of 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, ranged between 0.9 and 16.3 with a median of 3.2. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 47.8 and 81.9% with a median of 68.5%, and number of averted infections ranged between 401 and 68,499 with a median of 8,703. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.7 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 6.5. In the target incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 3,470 in Lebanon to 211,912 in Sudan with a median of 54,479, and treatment coverage ranged between 55.5 and 95.9% with a median of 87.5%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection was less than 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, reached less than 1. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 61.0 and 97.5% with a median of 90.7%, and number of averted infections ranged between 559 and 104,315 with a median of 12,158. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.3 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 5.5. </p><h3>Conclusion </h3><p dir="ltr">HCV-TasP is an effective and indispensable prevention intervention to control MENA’s HCV epidemic and to achieve elimination by 2030.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Frontiers in Public Health<br>License: <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1187786" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1187786</a></p>2023-07-13T09:00:00ZTextJournal contributioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontextcontribution to journal10.3389/fpubh.2023.1187786https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Treatment_as_prevention_for_hepatitis_C_virus_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_a_modeling_study/26808019CC BY 4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:figshare.com:article/268080192023-07-13T09:00:00Z |
| spellingShingle | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study Houssein H. Ayoub (9262512) Biological sciences Microbiology Biomedical and clinical sciences Clinical sciences Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Middle East and North Africa hepatitis C virus incidence mathematical model treatment as prevention |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study |
| title_full | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study |
| title_fullStr | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study |
| title_short | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study |
| title_sort | Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study |
| topic | Biological sciences Microbiology Biomedical and clinical sciences Clinical sciences Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Middle East and North Africa hepatitis C virus incidence mathematical model treatment as prevention |