Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models
<p dir="ltr">Two questions motivated this study: (a) Are global land regions exposed to future changes in absolute temperature extremes? (b) And to which degree? To answer these questions, we projected the trend in four indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detect...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Published: |
2021
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1864513553646485504 |
|---|---|
| author | Salah Basem Ajjur (14150967) |
| author2 | Sami G. Al‐Ghamdi (14778637) |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Salah Basem Ajjur (14150967) Sami G. Al‐Ghamdi (14778637) |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Salah Basem Ajjur (14150967) Sami G. Al‐Ghamdi (14778637) |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2021-08-21T03:00:00Z |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1029/2021ea001817 |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Global_Hotspots_for_Future_Absolute_Temperature_Extremes_From_CMIP6_Models/28005302 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Earth sciences Atmospheric sciences Environmental sciences Climate change impacts and adaptation CMIP6 Global Climate Models Climate Change Arctic Climate Mediterranean |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Text Journal contribution info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion text contribution to journal |
| description | <p dir="ltr">Two questions motivated this study: (a) Are global land regions exposed to future changes in absolute temperature extremes? (b) And to which degree? To answer these questions, we projected the trend in four indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), through the 21st century. Observational (HadEX3) and reanalyses (ERA5, JRA‐55, NCEP‐R‐1, and NCEP‐R‐2) datasets were used to validate and correct the bias in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. CMIP6 models were then used to evaluate the changes globally and in 44 reference regions under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. Globally, the analysis showed that, under SSP5‐8.5, TXx and TNx would increase by 0.07°C/year, and TXn (TNn) would increase by 0.09 (0.08)°C/year, during the middle of the 21st century (2021–2050), compared with the reference period (1981–2010). These trends are larger during the end of the 21st century (2071–2100). The analysis also showed that all land reference regions are projected to indices growth up to 3.5°C in TXx; 2.8°C in TNx; 4.5°C in TXn; and 4°C in TNn, during the mid‐21st century under SSP5‐8.5. The latter growth in indices increased by 211% for TXx, 237% for TNx, 242% for TXn, and 300% for TNn during the end‐21st century. The global hotspots affected by absolute temperature extremes are in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Iceland, Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau, Russian Arctic, Siberia, Mediterranean, Sahara, and Arabian Peninsula. The study's findings help understand the evolution of climate extremes, which is essential for climate change mitigation and adaptation plans.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Earth and Space Science<br>License: <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021ea001817" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021ea001817</a></p> |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| id | Manara2_b31d40408f0023ca66c9ae91025e522f |
| identifier_str_mv | 10.1029/2021ea001817 |
| network_acronym_str | Manara2 |
| network_name_str | Manara2 |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:figshare.com:article/28005302 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 |
| spelling | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 ModelsSalah Basem Ajjur (14150967)Sami G. Al‐Ghamdi (14778637)Earth sciencesAtmospheric sciencesEnvironmental sciencesClimate change impacts and adaptationCMIP6Global Climate ModelsClimate ChangeArctic ClimateMediterranean<p dir="ltr">Two questions motivated this study: (a) Are global land regions exposed to future changes in absolute temperature extremes? (b) And to which degree? To answer these questions, we projected the trend in four indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), through the 21st century. Observational (HadEX3) and reanalyses (ERA5, JRA‐55, NCEP‐R‐1, and NCEP‐R‐2) datasets were used to validate and correct the bias in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. CMIP6 models were then used to evaluate the changes globally and in 44 reference regions under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. Globally, the analysis showed that, under SSP5‐8.5, TXx and TNx would increase by 0.07°C/year, and TXn (TNn) would increase by 0.09 (0.08)°C/year, during the middle of the 21st century (2021–2050), compared with the reference period (1981–2010). These trends are larger during the end of the 21st century (2071–2100). The analysis also showed that all land reference regions are projected to indices growth up to 3.5°C in TXx; 2.8°C in TNx; 4.5°C in TXn; and 4°C in TNn, during the mid‐21st century under SSP5‐8.5. The latter growth in indices increased by 211% for TXx, 237% for TNx, 242% for TXn, and 300% for TNn during the end‐21st century. The global hotspots affected by absolute temperature extremes are in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Iceland, Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau, Russian Arctic, Siberia, Mediterranean, Sahara, and Arabian Peninsula. The study's findings help understand the evolution of climate extremes, which is essential for climate change mitigation and adaptation plans.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Earth and Space Science<br>License: <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021ea001817" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021ea001817</a></p>2021-08-21T03:00:00ZTextJournal contributioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontextcontribution to journal10.1029/2021ea001817https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Global_Hotspots_for_Future_Absolute_Temperature_Extremes_From_CMIP6_Models/28005302CC BY 4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:figshare.com:article/280053022021-08-21T03:00:00Z |
| spellingShingle | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models Salah Basem Ajjur (14150967) Earth sciences Atmospheric sciences Environmental sciences Climate change impacts and adaptation CMIP6 Global Climate Models Climate Change Arctic Climate Mediterranean |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models |
| title_full | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models |
| title_fullStr | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models |
| title_short | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models |
| title_sort | Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models |
| topic | Earth sciences Atmospheric sciences Environmental sciences Climate change impacts and adaptation CMIP6 Global Climate Models Climate Change Arctic Climate Mediterranean |