The Next Decade of Cardiovascular Disease Burden in Qatar, a Gulf Cooperation Council Country: Projections from 2024 to 2033
<h3>Background</h3><p dir="ltr">Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a great public health challenge in Qatar, with significant impacts on long-term population health and societal costs. </p><h3>Objective</h3><p dir="ltr">We aimed to forecas...
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2025
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| Summary: | <h3>Background</h3><p dir="ltr">Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a great public health challenge in Qatar, with significant impacts on long-term population health and societal costs. </p><h3>Objective</h3><p dir="ltr">We aimed to forecast the health and economic burden of the CVD in Qatar from 2024-2033, from both healthcare and societal perspective. </p><h3>Methods</h3><p dir="ltr">A validated two-stage dynamic model was structured, spanning a 10-year period and targeting individuals aged 40-79. The CVD incidents (i.e., myocardial infarction [MI], stroke) were estimated using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent events were obtained from the global REACH registry. The model outcomes included fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total direct costs, and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost inputs were derived from published sources. Outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3% per annum. Calibration and validation were performed to ensure model accuracy. A multivariate sensitivity analysis was also conducted. </p><h3>Results</h3><p dir="ltr">By 2033, there will be 271,260 non-fatal MI events (95% confidence interval [CI] 271,249-271,277), 258,892 non-fatal strokes (95%CI 258,858-259,094), and 20,413 CVD deaths (95%CI 20,405-20,429). The cumulative years of life lived and QALYs were 13,806,845 (95% CI 13,802,149-13,811,541) and 10,655,665 (95%CI 10,652,720-10,658,611), respectively. The direct costs were QAR71.14 (95%CI QAR70.62-71.66) billion, and the productivity loss costs were estimated to surpass QAR108.12 (95%CI QAR106.88-109.36) billion. The exchange rates used were based on 2024 values (1QAR=0.27US$). </p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p dir="ltr">This study offers valuable insights into the projected burden of CVD in Qatar, highlighting the need for effective preventive strategies to reduce risk.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Current Problems in Cardiology<br>License: <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2025.103206" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2025.103206</a></p> |
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