Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications
<h3>Introduction</h3><p dir="ltr"><i><u>Coxiella burnetii</u></i><i><u>,</u></i> an intracellular zoonotic bacterium, affectsing various livestock and <u>wildlife</u> species and poses significant risks to human...
محفوظ في:
| المؤلف الرئيسي: | |
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| مؤلفون آخرون: | , |
| منشور في: |
2025
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| الموضوعات: | |
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إضافة وسم
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| _version_ | 1864513534682988544 |
|---|---|
| author | Abdallah Falah Mohammad Aldwekat (22457821) |
| author2 | Niloufar Lorestani (20487194) Farzin Shabani (302023) |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_facet | Abdallah Falah Mohammad Aldwekat (22457821) Niloufar Lorestani (20487194) Farzin Shabani (302023) |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Abdallah Falah Mohammad Aldwekat (22457821) Niloufar Lorestani (20487194) Farzin Shabani (302023) |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2025-04-15T12:00:00Z |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100442 |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Impacts_of_climate_change_on_the_global_spread_and_habitat_suitability_of_i_Coxiella_burnetii_i_Future_projections_and_public_health_implications/30393322 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Biological sciences Microbiology Biomedical and clinical sciences Medical microbiology Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Climate change Coxiella burnetii Species distribution models (SDMs) Future climate projections Global circulation models (GCMs) |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Text Journal contribution info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion text contribution to journal |
| description | <h3>Introduction</h3><p dir="ltr"><i><u>Coxiella burnetii</u></i><i><u>,</u></i> an intracellular zoonotic bacterium, affectsing various livestock and <u>wildlife</u> species and poses significant risks to human health. This study aims to assess how <u>climate change</u> could impact the global distribution and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>, the pathogen responsible for <u>Q fever</u>. </p><h3>Materials and methods</h3><p dir="ltr">An ensemble<u> species distribution modelling </u>approach, integrating regression-based and machine-learning algorithms (GLM, GBM, RF, MaxEnt), was used to project habitat suitability (Current time and by 2050, 2070, and 2090). Climate variables were obtained from five global circulation models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The study evaluated the models’ performance using the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). </p><h3>Results</h3><p dir="ltr">Results show that under current climate conditions, <i>C. burnetii</i> is widespread across regions like North and South America, Europe, and parts of Africa, <u>Asia</u>, and Australia. Future projections indicate a northward shift in habitat suitability, especially under the severe SSP5-8.5 scenario, with significant expansions into Russia, northern Europe, and Canada. Conversely, regions in South America, Africa, and Australia may see declines in suitable habitats. By 2090, a 44.56 % (range: 33–57.9 %) across the models, increase in suitable habitat is predicted, accompanied by a 27.66 % (range: 22.4–31.7 %) loss of current habitats. </p><h3>Discussion</h3><p dir="ltr">Findings indicate that temperature <u>seasonality</u> and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential climatic variables shaping the distribution of <i>C. burnetii</i>. These results underscore the importance of <u>climate variability</u> in influencing the pathogen's global distribution and highlight the critical role of environmental factors in predicting future habitat shifts. </p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p dir="ltr">The study highlights the profound <u>impact climate change</u> could have on the global distribution of C. burnetii. It underscores the need for proactive public health strategies in emerging high-risk areas and emphasizes the importance of mitigating risks in regions experiencing habitat declines. These findings offer valuable insights for public health planning and <u>livestock management</u> under future climate scenarios. In interpreting these results, it is important to consider modelling uncertainties, including assumptions and data limitations.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: The Journal of Climate Change and Health<br>License: <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100442" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100442</a></p> |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| id | Manara2_f1ab376222a65b66fc8864f3dec809bc |
| identifier_str_mv | 10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100442 |
| network_acronym_str | Manara2 |
| network_name_str | Manara2 |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:figshare.com:article/30393322 |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | CC BY 4.0 |
| spelling | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implicationsAbdallah Falah Mohammad Aldwekat (22457821)Niloufar Lorestani (20487194)Farzin Shabani (302023)Biological sciencesMicrobiologyBiomedical and clinical sciencesMedical microbiologyHealth sciencesEpidemiologyPublic healthClimate changeCoxiella burnetiiSpecies distribution models (SDMs)Future climate projectionsGlobal circulation models (GCMs)<h3>Introduction</h3><p dir="ltr"><i><u>Coxiella burnetii</u></i><i><u>,</u></i> an intracellular zoonotic bacterium, affectsing various livestock and <u>wildlife</u> species and poses significant risks to human health. This study aims to assess how <u>climate change</u> could impact the global distribution and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>, the pathogen responsible for <u>Q fever</u>. </p><h3>Materials and methods</h3><p dir="ltr">An ensemble<u> species distribution modelling </u>approach, integrating regression-based and machine-learning algorithms (GLM, GBM, RF, MaxEnt), was used to project habitat suitability (Current time and by 2050, 2070, and 2090). Climate variables were obtained from five global circulation models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The study evaluated the models’ performance using the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). </p><h3>Results</h3><p dir="ltr">Results show that under current climate conditions, <i>C. burnetii</i> is widespread across regions like North and South America, Europe, and parts of Africa, <u>Asia</u>, and Australia. Future projections indicate a northward shift in habitat suitability, especially under the severe SSP5-8.5 scenario, with significant expansions into Russia, northern Europe, and Canada. Conversely, regions in South America, Africa, and Australia may see declines in suitable habitats. By 2090, a 44.56 % (range: 33–57.9 %) across the models, increase in suitable habitat is predicted, accompanied by a 27.66 % (range: 22.4–31.7 %) loss of current habitats. </p><h3>Discussion</h3><p dir="ltr">Findings indicate that temperature <u>seasonality</u> and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential climatic variables shaping the distribution of <i>C. burnetii</i>. These results underscore the importance of <u>climate variability</u> in influencing the pathogen's global distribution and highlight the critical role of environmental factors in predicting future habitat shifts. </p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p dir="ltr">The study highlights the profound <u>impact climate change</u> could have on the global distribution of C. burnetii. It underscores the need for proactive public health strategies in emerging high-risk areas and emphasizes the importance of mitigating risks in regions experiencing habitat declines. These findings offer valuable insights for public health planning and <u>livestock management</u> under future climate scenarios. In interpreting these results, it is important to consider modelling uncertainties, including assumptions and data limitations.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: The Journal of Climate Change and Health<br>License: <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100442" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100442</a></p>2025-04-15T12:00:00ZTextJournal contributioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontextcontribution to journal10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100442https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Impacts_of_climate_change_on_the_global_spread_and_habitat_suitability_of_i_Coxiella_burnetii_i_Future_projections_and_public_health_implications/30393322CC BY 4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:figshare.com:article/303933222025-04-15T12:00:00Z |
| spellingShingle | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications Abdallah Falah Mohammad Aldwekat (22457821) Biological sciences Microbiology Biomedical and clinical sciences Medical microbiology Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Climate change Coxiella burnetii Species distribution models (SDMs) Future climate projections Global circulation models (GCMs) |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications |
| title_full | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications |
| title_short | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications |
| title_sort | Impacts of climate change on the global spread and habitat suitability of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i>: Future projections and public health implications |
| topic | Biological sciences Microbiology Biomedical and clinical sciences Medical microbiology Health sciences Epidemiology Public health Climate change Coxiella burnetii Species distribution models (SDMs) Future climate projections Global circulation models (GCMs) |