AUC statistics as calculated from simulated time series. Each statistical metric was calculated within sliding windows, throughout the pre-critical interval. We considered five-, fifteen-, and thirty-day sliding windows. Given that the temperature of the system increased to 12°C on day sixty, we also considered three pre-critical intervals: Days 1 to 60, Days 20 to 60, and Days 30 to 60. To evaluate trends in these metrics, we calculated Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient during the pre-critical interval, and compared control (constant temperature, non-epidemic) and warming (warming treatment, epidemic emergence) coefficients across simulations and experimental populations by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) statistic. Values less than 0.5 suggest that a decrease in the statistical metric indicates emergence, while values greater than 0.5 suggest that an increase in the statistical metric indicates emergence, with more extreme values indicating stronger tre
Dahkki: Madeline Jarvis-Cross (22394247)
Almmustuhtton: (2025)