Models of realistic epidemic surveillance.
<p>The true infection incidence data <i>I</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> is first distorted by a probabilistic delay modelled by a convolution with , which are probabilities from a Gamma distribution. Under-ascertainment then occurs by downsampling these delayed cas...
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2025
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| Summary: | <p>The true infection incidence data <i>I</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> is first distorted by a probabilistic delay modelled by a convolution with , which are probabilities from a Gamma distribution. Under-ascertainment then occurs by downsampling these delayed cases using a Beta-binomial distribution. This yields the reported daily cases <i>C</i><sub><i>t</i></sub>, which is frequently used as a proxy for the unobservable <i>I</i><sub><i>t</i></sub>. In some simulations, we turn either reporting delay or under-reporting off. If there is no reporting delay, and similarly, if there is no under-reporting .</p> |
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