Model performance of original models and ensembles from [10].

<p>Left: WIS (averaged over time points and horizons), split into components for underprediction, spread, and overprediction. A second axis at the top of the plot shows relative WIS with respect to a naïve baseline of no delay correction (see <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/articl...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	André Victor Ribeiro Amaral (20818265) (author)
Other Authors:	Daniel Wolffram (16819669) (author), Paula Moraga (845998) (author), Johannes Bracher (9106125) (author)
Published:	2025
Subjects:	Genetics Immunology Cancer Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified unweighted nowcast ensembles specific challenges arise rather consistent improvements infectious disease surveillance forecast interval coverage probabilistic nowcasting methods find modest improvement assess current trends 19 hospitalization data different probabilistic nowcasts weighted ensemble nowcasts weighted combination ensemble building different models xlink "> weather forecasting substantial challenge simple methods retrospective corrections resulting biases reporting delays recent comparison real time natural extension methods lead individual models incidence data improving upon g ., frequently subject favorable results constantly revised considered models building upon
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Model performance of original models and ensembles from [10].

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