Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx

Introduction<p>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses a significant global health challenge, requiring timely interventions to manage renal function decline. Traditional predictive models often lack accuracy and generalizability. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to...

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محفوظ في:
التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
المؤلف الرئيسي: Hong Chen (108084) (author)
مؤلفون آخرون: Yuping Huang (149350) (author), Lizhen Chen (358286) (author)
منشور في: 2025
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author Hong Chen (108084)
author2 Yuping Huang (149350)
Lizhen Chen (358286)
author2_role author
author
author_facet Hong Chen (108084)
Yuping Huang (149350)
Lizhen Chen (358286)
author_role author
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Hong Chen (108084)
Yuping Huang (149350)
Lizhen Chen (358286)
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-10-27T06:18:09Z
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv 10.3389/fmed.2025.1598065.s001
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Table_1_Ensemble_machine_learning_for_predicting_renal_function_decline_in_chronic_kidney_disease_development_and_external_validation_docx/30452420
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv CC BY 4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Foetal Development and Medicine
machine learning
chronic kidney disease progression
risk prediction modeling
clinical decision support
precision nephrology
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Dataset
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dataset
description Introduction<p>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses a significant global health challenge, requiring timely interventions to manage renal function decline. Traditional predictive models often lack accuracy and generalizability. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to enhance risk prediction of renal function decline in CKD patients, enabling early and personalized interventions.</p>Methods<p>We developed an ensemble machine learning model using Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM algorithms, incorporating advanced feature selection and hyperparameter tuning. The model was trained and validated on data from 1,200 CKD patients across multiple clinics, selected through stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria. Clinical, demographic, and laboratory data were processed with rigorous quality control. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC), calibration metrics, and five-fold cross-validation, with external validation across three medical centers.</p>Results<p>The ensemble model achieved an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.87-0.91), outperforming traditional Cox models (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.79-0.85) and standard machine learning approaches (AUC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.83-0.87). Key predictors identified via SHAP analysis included estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), age, and urinary protein-creatinine ratio. The model demonstrated excellent calibration (slope: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.98) and robust performance across diverse patient subgroups, with a 60.6% reduction in computational resource use compared to traditional methods.</p>Discussion<p>This machine learning model offers a significant advancement in predicting CKD progression, providing a reliable, generalizable tool for early risk stratification. Its superior accuracy and efficiency support integration into clinical workflows, potentially transforming CKD management by enabling proactive, data-driven interventions. Future research should focus on incorporating novel biomarkers and expanding multicenter validation to further enhance clinical applicability.</p>
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
id Manara_c1b992ce8bd352849e718cfa73e4ea43
identifier_str_mv 10.3389/fmed.2025.1598065.s001
network_acronym_str Manara
network_name_str ManaraRepo
oai_identifier_str oai:figshare.com:article/30452420
publishDate 2025
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository_id_str
rights_invalid_str_mv CC BY 4.0
spelling Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docxHong Chen (108084)Yuping Huang (149350)Lizhen Chen (358286)Foetal Development and Medicinemachine learningchronic kidney disease progressionrisk prediction modelingclinical decision supportprecision nephrologyIntroduction<p>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses a significant global health challenge, requiring timely interventions to manage renal function decline. Traditional predictive models often lack accuracy and generalizability. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to enhance risk prediction of renal function decline in CKD patients, enabling early and personalized interventions.</p>Methods<p>We developed an ensemble machine learning model using Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM algorithms, incorporating advanced feature selection and hyperparameter tuning. The model was trained and validated on data from 1,200 CKD patients across multiple clinics, selected through stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria. Clinical, demographic, and laboratory data were processed with rigorous quality control. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC), calibration metrics, and five-fold cross-validation, with external validation across three medical centers.</p>Results<p>The ensemble model achieved an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.87-0.91), outperforming traditional Cox models (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.79-0.85) and standard machine learning approaches (AUC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.83-0.87). Key predictors identified via SHAP analysis included estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), age, and urinary protein-creatinine ratio. The model demonstrated excellent calibration (slope: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.98) and robust performance across diverse patient subgroups, with a 60.6% reduction in computational resource use compared to traditional methods.</p>Discussion<p>This machine learning model offers a significant advancement in predicting CKD progression, providing a reliable, generalizable tool for early risk stratification. Its superior accuracy and efficiency support integration into clinical workflows, potentially transforming CKD management by enabling proactive, data-driven interventions. Future research should focus on incorporating novel biomarkers and expanding multicenter validation to further enhance clinical applicability.</p>2025-10-27T06:18:09ZDatasetinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiondataset10.3389/fmed.2025.1598065.s001https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Table_1_Ensemble_machine_learning_for_predicting_renal_function_decline_in_chronic_kidney_disease_development_and_external_validation_docx/30452420CC BY 4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:figshare.com:article/304524202025-10-27T06:18:09Z
spellingShingle Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
Hong Chen (108084)
Foetal Development and Medicine
machine learning
chronic kidney disease progression
risk prediction modeling
clinical decision support
precision nephrology
status_str publishedVersion
title Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
title_full Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
title_fullStr Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
title_full_unstemmed Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
title_short Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
title_sort Table 1_Ensemble machine learning for predicting renal function decline in chronic kidney disease: development and external validation.docx
topic Foetal Development and Medicine
machine learning
chronic kidney disease progression
risk prediction modeling
clinical decision support
precision nephrology