Optimal control and policy review for realistic simulated epidemics.
<p>Rows (a) and (b) represent epidemics simulated under a COVID-like generation time and basic reproduction number with 7 and 14 days policy review periods, respectively. Rows (c) and (d) represent epidemics simulated under Ebola-like parameters with 7 and 14 days policy review periods, respec...
محفوظ في:
| المؤلف الرئيسي: | |
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| مؤلفون آخرون: | |
| منشور في: |
2025
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| الموضوعات: | |
| الوسوم: |
إضافة وسم
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| الملخص: | <p>Rows (a) and (b) represent epidemics simulated under a COVID-like generation time and basic reproduction number with 7 and 14 days policy review periods, respectively. Rows (c) and (d) represent epidemics simulated under Ebola-like parameters with 7 and 14 days policy review periods, respectively. Because Ebola virus disease has a longer generation time, we discard a burn in period of 14 weeks to allow the epidemic to grow towards the initial target. The left column show reported cases from ensembles of 100 simulations with mean delay 10.5 days, delay dispersion , mean reporting rate 0.25, <i>a</i> = 8.0. These settings reflect estimates of realistic surveillance noise from the literature. The faded curves show different individual realisations of the epidemic with the 3 black curves marking the 5% and 95% percentiles of the ensemble as well as the mean reported cases. The horizontal dashed line shows the incidence target. The highlighted thick curve of reported cases is coloured based on the NPI implemented on a given day. The blue thin curve indicates the true incidence corresponding to that highlighted simulation. The right column shows similar diagrams for the effective reproduction number. The faded grey curves and the highlighted curve represents the effective reproduction number whereas the thin orange curve indicates the estimated value from the reported cases for the highlighted realisation of the epidemic. The inset pie charts in the right column indicate the ratio of days spent under a given NPI across the full simulation ensemble.</p> |
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