Smoothed reported suspected measles incidence among 0-to-4-year-olds (light blue) compared to estimated incidence adjusted for reporting (black) from best model fit across each zone in weeks from 2013 to 2019.

<p>Smoothed reported suspected measles incidence among 0-to-4-year-olds (light blue) compared to estimated incidence adjusted for reporting (black) from best model fit across each zone in weeks from 2013 to 2019.</p>

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Alyssa N. Sbarra (18460545) (author)
Other Authors:	Emily Haeuser (6049937) (author), Samuel Kidane (12877951) (author), Andargie Abate (8351103) (author), Ayele M. Abebe (21100638) (author), Muktar Ahmed (12151188) (author), Tsegaye Alemayehu (10663533) (author), Erkihun Amsalu (16974992) (author), Aleksandr Y. Aravkin (20318004) (author), Akeza A. Asgedom (21100641) (author), Nebiyou Bayleyegn (21100644) (author), Mulat Dagnew (6589403) (author), Biniyam Demisse (18301735) (author), Werku Etafa (8741847) (author), Getahun Fetensa (8741844) (author), Teferi G. Gebremeskel (11011122) (author), Habtamu Geremew (8813228) (author), Abraham T. Gizaw (21100647) (author), Gamechu A. Hunde (21100650) (author), Hadush N. Meles (21100653) (author), Sibhat Migbar (21100656) (author), Jason Q. Nguyen (21100659) (author), Eshetu Nigussie (11922655) (author), Rebecca E. Ramshaw (21100662) (author), Sam Rolfe (9715547) (author), Biniyam Sahiledengle (6648548) (author), Noga Shalev (6182891) (author), Yonatan Solomon (11638075) (author), Latera Tesfaye (14773868) (author), Gesila E. Yesera (21100665) (author), Mark Jit (43662) (author), Jonathan F. Mosser (9091253) (author)
Published:	2025
Subjects:	Biotechnology Cancer Infectious Diseases Computational Biology Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified vaccinated individuals even travel times via synthetic contact matrix supplemental immunization activities remaining susceptible individuals ran sensitivity analyses possible fitting algorithms ongoing measles transmission measles susceptibility within estimate measles incidence block coordinate descent steep likelihood surface modified gravity model measles control efforts dynamic transmission model critical vaccination threshold case notifications adjusted susceptibility across time susceptibility across space small area methods reported measles cases incorporates geospatial estimates many data observations across age groups reported cases vaccination programs use geospatial subnational estimates model parameterization model fitted many settings increased efforts friction surface case ascertainment available data address data xlink "> vaccine effectiveness unquantified uncertainty underlying gaps substantial heterogeneity subnational geographies statistical challenges spatial movement reached nationwide never previously methodological challenges maintained due local planning likely presence explore variations either unvaccinated compared patterns burden settings best performance administrative units
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Smoothed reported suspected measles incidence among 0-to-4-year-olds (light blue) compared to estimated incidence adjusted for reporting (black) from best model fit across each zone in weeks from 2013 to 2019.

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