Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa.
Poaching of elephants in Southern Africa is now dominated by international groups following a model of organized crime. This shift, from poaching conducted by small, local groups; with limited mobility, weapons, and technology, to individuals who organize, finance, equip, and transport well-armed po...
محفوظ في:
| المؤلف الرئيسي: | |
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| التنسيق: | article |
| منشور في: |
2015
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| الموضوعات: | |
| الوصول للمادة أونلاين: | http://hdl.handle.net/11073/8274 |
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| _version_ | 1864513436254208000 |
|---|---|
| author | Lopes, Adrian |
| author_facet | Lopes, Adrian |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Lopes, Adrian |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2015-02 2016-03-16T09:43:47Z 2016-03-16T09:43:47Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | Lopes, Adrian. "Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa." Natural Resource Modeling 28, no. 1 (February, 2015): 86-107. 1939-7445 http://hdl.handle.net/11073/8274 10.1111/nrm.12058 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | en_US |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12058 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Savanna elephants poaching stochastic population dynamics |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| description | Poaching of elephants in Southern Africa is now dominated by international groups following a model of organized crime. This shift, from poaching conducted by small, local groups; with limited mobility, weapons, and technology, to individuals who organize, finance, equip, and transport well-armed poaching units to previously scouted locations, has made the protection of elephants in Southern Africa much more difficult and dangerous. This paper develops a model of high-tech criminal poaching. A poaching organization makes a decision on the number of “planned poaching expeditions.” If a poaching unit is intercepted the entire organization is destroyed, but is replaced by a new organization in the next year. The operating life of a poaching organization is a stochastic process, which in turn induces a stochastic evolution in the elephant population. Under plausible conditions, the number of planned poaching expeditions is highly sensitive to the probability of interception by anti-poaching patrols, but is nonresponsive to reductions in the black-market ivory price. Thereby it might be better to focus conservation efforts on increasing the probability of intercepting poaching units rather than trying to control black market ivory prices. A benchmark value of poaching expeditions is identified—above which elephants may slowly decline to extinction. |
| format | article |
| id | aus_9d589fc2ffc6ce964c38063a3045b6e6 |
| identifier_str_mv | Lopes, Adrian. "Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa." Natural Resource Modeling 28, no. 1 (February, 2015): 86-107. 1939-7445 10.1111/nrm.12058 |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en_US |
| network_acronym_str | aus |
| network_name_str | aus |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repository.aus.edu:11073/8274 |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| spelling | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa.Lopes, AdrianSavanna elephantspoachingstochastic population dynamicsPoaching of elephants in Southern Africa is now dominated by international groups following a model of organized crime. This shift, from poaching conducted by small, local groups; with limited mobility, weapons, and technology, to individuals who organize, finance, equip, and transport well-armed poaching units to previously scouted locations, has made the protection of elephants in Southern Africa much more difficult and dangerous. This paper develops a model of high-tech criminal poaching. A poaching organization makes a decision on the number of “planned poaching expeditions.” If a poaching unit is intercepted the entire organization is destroyed, but is replaced by a new organization in the next year. The operating life of a poaching organization is a stochastic process, which in turn induces a stochastic evolution in the elephant population. Under plausible conditions, the number of planned poaching expeditions is highly sensitive to the probability of interception by anti-poaching patrols, but is nonresponsive to reductions in the black-market ivory price. Thereby it might be better to focus conservation efforts on increasing the probability of intercepting poaching units rather than trying to control black market ivory prices. A benchmark value of poaching expeditions is identified—above which elephants may slowly decline to extinction.2016-03-16T09:43:47Z2016-03-16T09:43:47Z2015-02info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfLopes, Adrian. "Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa." Natural Resource Modeling 28, no. 1 (February, 2015): 86-107.1939-7445http://hdl.handle.net/11073/827410.1111/nrm.12058en_UShttps://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12058oai:repository.aus.edu:11073/82742024-08-22T12:16:55Z |
| spellingShingle | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. Lopes, Adrian Savanna elephants poaching stochastic population dynamics |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. |
| title_full | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. |
| title_fullStr | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. |
| title_short | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. |
| title_sort | Organized Crimes Against Nature: Elephants in Southern Africa. |
| topic | Savanna elephants poaching stochastic population dynamics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11073/8274 |