Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs

Loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected energy not served (EENS) are commonly used in electrical power systems to evaluate reliability. LOLP defined as the probability that available generation capacity will be inadequate to supply customer demand. EENS defined as the expected amount of energy...

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Main Author: Nallainathan, Sakthivelnathan (author)
Other Authors: Arefi, Ali (author), Lund, Christopher (author), Mehrizi-Sani, Ali (author), Muyeen, S.M. (author)
Format: article
Published: 2024
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133426
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422403202X
http://hdl.handle.net/10576/61929
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author Nallainathan, Sakthivelnathan
author2 Arefi, Ali
Lund, Christopher
Mehrizi-Sani, Ali
Muyeen, S.M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author_facet Nallainathan, Sakthivelnathan
Arefi, Ali
Lund, Christopher
Mehrizi-Sani, Ali
Muyeen, S.M.
author_role author
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Nallainathan, Sakthivelnathan
Arefi, Ali
Lund, Christopher
Mehrizi-Sani, Ali
Muyeen, S.M.
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-12-16T08:38:50Z
2024-12-01
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133426
Sakthivelnathan, N., Arefi, A., Lund, C., Mehrizi-Sani, A., & Muyeen, S. M. (2024). Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs. Energy, 311, 133426.‏
03605442
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422403202X
http://hdl.handle.net/10576/61929
311
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv en
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Ltd
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Cost-effective reliability level
Hundred percent renewable energy
Mixed integer linear program
Monte Carlo simulation
Reliability levels
Standalone microgrid system
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
description Loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected energy not served (EENS) are commonly used in electrical power systems to evaluate reliability. LOLP defined as the probability that available generation capacity will be inadequate to supply customer demand. EENS defined as the expected amount of energy not being served to consumers by the system during the period considered due to system capacity shortages or unexpected power outages. Loss of Load Frequency (LOLF) is referred to a number of loss of load (LOL) event happened in the operation life span of the SMG. Loss of Load Reduction (LOLR) is defined as the required reduction in LOLF to obtain a specific reliability level. While power systems are designed to minimize LOLP and EENS, this is constrained by the total cost: investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, and cost of customer interruption (CCI). This research considers Standalone Microgrid (SMG), also known as Autonomous Microgrid which only operates in off-grid mode and cannot be connected to wider electrical power system. When designing a 100 % renewable energy integrated SMGs, it is crucial to determine the cost-effective reliability level (CERL). The CERL occurs when the total cost is minimum. This research proposes an approach to calculate the CERL for a fully renewable SMG. An analytical formulation is proposed to represent the LOLR needed to obtain a specific reliability level as a function of the required size of reliability improvement alternatives. The CCI is evaluated using LOLF and EENS indices. Finally, the total cost of the SMG system is evaluated for each reliability level. Consequently, the total cost of the SMG system is expressed as a function of reliability levels, and the minimum value of total cost and the corresponding reliability level are evaluated. In this research, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach is used to find hourly LOLF, considering 25 years (219,000 h) of SMG lifespan, regression analysis is used for an analytical formulation, and mixed integer linear programming (MILP) is used for the investment decision making based on a cost minimisation approach. The result demonstrates that the CERL of the SMG system evaluated in the case study is 98.71 %.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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id qu_65c5ca0464de3683a8a36b56fa247400
identifier_str_mv Sakthivelnathan, N., Arefi, A., Lund, C., Mehrizi-Sani, A., & Muyeen, S. M. (2024). Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs. Energy, 311, 133426.‏
03605442
311
language_invalid_str_mv en
network_acronym_str qu
network_name_str Qatar University repository
oai_identifier_str oai:qspace.qu.edu.qa:10576/61929
publishDate 2024
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Ltd
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rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spelling Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costsNallainathan, SakthivelnathanArefi, AliLund, ChristopherMehrizi-Sani, AliMuyeen, S.M.Cost-effective reliability levelHundred percent renewable energyMixed integer linear programMonte Carlo simulationReliability levelsStandalone microgrid systemLoss of load probability (LOLP) and expected energy not served (EENS) are commonly used in electrical power systems to evaluate reliability. LOLP defined as the probability that available generation capacity will be inadequate to supply customer demand. EENS defined as the expected amount of energy not being served to consumers by the system during the period considered due to system capacity shortages or unexpected power outages. Loss of Load Frequency (LOLF) is referred to a number of loss of load (LOL) event happened in the operation life span of the SMG. Loss of Load Reduction (LOLR) is defined as the required reduction in LOLF to obtain a specific reliability level. While power systems are designed to minimize LOLP and EENS, this is constrained by the total cost: investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, and cost of customer interruption (CCI). This research considers Standalone Microgrid (SMG), also known as Autonomous Microgrid which only operates in off-grid mode and cannot be connected to wider electrical power system. When designing a 100 % renewable energy integrated SMGs, it is crucial to determine the cost-effective reliability level (CERL). The CERL occurs when the total cost is minimum. This research proposes an approach to calculate the CERL for a fully renewable SMG. An analytical formulation is proposed to represent the LOLR needed to obtain a specific reliability level as a function of the required size of reliability improvement alternatives. The CCI is evaluated using LOLF and EENS indices. Finally, the total cost of the SMG system is evaluated for each reliability level. Consequently, the total cost of the SMG system is expressed as a function of reliability levels, and the minimum value of total cost and the corresponding reliability level are evaluated. In this research, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach is used to find hourly LOLF, considering 25 years (219,000 h) of SMG lifespan, regression analysis is used for an analytical formulation, and mixed integer linear programming (MILP) is used for the investment decision making based on a cost minimisation approach. The result demonstrates that the CERL of the SMG system evaluated in the case study is 98.71 %.Elsevier Ltd2024-12-16T08:38:50Z2024-12-01Articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133426Sakthivelnathan, N., Arefi, A., Lund, C., Mehrizi-Sani, A., & Muyeen, S. M. (2024). Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs. Energy, 311, 133426.‏03605442https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422403202Xhttp://hdl.handle.net/10576/61929311enhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:qspace.qu.edu.qa:10576/619292024-12-16T19:05:10Z
spellingShingle Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
Nallainathan, Sakthivelnathan
Cost-effective reliability level
Hundred percent renewable energy
Mixed integer linear program
Monte Carlo simulation
Reliability levels
Standalone microgrid system
status_str publishedVersion
title Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
title_full Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
title_fullStr Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
title_full_unstemmed Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
title_short Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
title_sort Cost-effective reliability level in 100% renewables-based standalone microgrids considering investment and expected energy not served costs
topic Cost-effective reliability level
Hundred percent renewable energy
Mixed integer linear program
Monte Carlo simulation
Reliability levels
Standalone microgrid system
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133426
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422403202X
http://hdl.handle.net/10576/61929