Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
BackgroundNeck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age,...
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| التنسيق: | article |
| منشور في: |
2024
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| الوصول للمادة أونلاين: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00321-1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665991323003211 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/53778 |
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| _version_ | 1857415086785691648 |
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| author | Cross, Marita |
| author2 | Elliott, James M Culbreth, Garland T Haile, Lydia M Steinmetz, Jaimie D Hagins, Hailey Kopec, Jacek A Brooks, Peter M Woolf, Anthony D Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R Walton, David M Treleaven, Julia M Dreinhoefer, Karsten E Betteridge, Neil Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Aithala, Janardhana P Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alimohamadi, Yousef Amiri, Sohrab Amu, Hubert Antony, Benny Arabloo, Jalal Aravkin, Aleksandr Y Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Atomsa, Gamechu Hunde Azadnajafabad, Sina Azzam, Ahmed Y Baghdadi, Soroush Balogun, Saliu A Balta, Asaminew Birhanu Banach, Maciej Banakar, Morteza Barrow, Amadou Bashiri, Azadeh Bekele, Alehegn Bensenor, Isabela M Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhat, Ajay Nagesh Bilchut, Awraris Hailu Briggs, Andrew M Buchbinder, Rachelle Cao, Chao Chaurasia, Akhilanand Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee Coberly, Kaleb Cousin, Ewerton Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen de Luca, Katie Dehghan, Azizallah Dong, Huan-Ji Ekholuenetale, Michael Elhadi, Muhammed Eshetu, Habitu Birhan Eskandarieh, Sharareh Etaee, Farshid Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis Fares, Jawad Fatehizadeh, Ali Feizkhah, Alireza Ferreira, Manuela L Ferreira, Nuno Fischer, Florian Franklin, Richard Charles Ganesan, Balasankar Gebremichael, Mathewos Alemu Gerema, Urge Gholami, Ali Ghozy, Sherief Gill, Tiffany K Golechha, Mahaveer Goleij, Pouya Golinelli, Davide Graham, Simon Matthew Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin Harlianto, Netanja I Hartvigsen, Jan Hasanian, Mohammad Hassen, Mohammed Bheser Hay, Simon I Hebert, Jeffrey J Heidari, Golnaz Hoveidaei, Amir Human Hsiao, Alexander Kevin Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Iwu, Chidozie C D Jacob, Louis Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar Jin, Yingzhao Jonas, Jost B. Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma Kandel, Himal Khader, Yousef Saleh Khajuria, Himanshu Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Moien AB Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khateri, Sorour Khayat Kashani, Hamid Reza Khonji, Mohammad Saeid Khubchandani, Jagdish Kim, Yun Jin Kisa, Adnan Kolahi, Ali-Asghar Koohestani, Hamid Reza Krishan, Kewal Kuddus, Mohammed Kuttikkattu, Ambily Lasrado, Savita Lee, Yo Han Legesse, Samson Mideksa Lim, Stephen S Liu, Xuefeng Lo, Justin Malih, Narges Manandhar, Shisir Prasad Mathews, Elezebeth Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal Mestrovic, Tomislav Miller, Ted R Mirghaderi, Seyed Peyman Misganaw, Awoke Mohammadi, Esmaeil Mohammed, Shafiu Mokdad, Ali H Momtazmanesh, Sara Moni, Mohammad Ali Mostafavi, Ebrahim Murray, Christopher J L Nair, Tapas Sadasivan Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Oh, In-Hwan Okonji, Osaretin Christabel Owolabi, Mayowa O Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin Pahlevan Fallahy, Mohammad Taha Park, Seoyeon Patel, Jay Pawar, Shrikant Pedersini, Paolo Peres, Mario F P Petcu, Ionela-Roxana Pourahmadi, Mohammadreza Qattea, Ibrahim Ram, Pradhum Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rawaf, Salman Rezaei, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Saeed, Umar Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh Salahi, Saina Sawhney, Monika Schumacher, Austin E Shafie, Mahan Shahabi, Saeed Shahbandi, Ataollah Shamekh, Ali Sharma, Saurab Shiri, Rahman Shobeiri, Parnian Sinaei, Ehsan Singh, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Paramdeep Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna Smith, Amanda E Tabish, Mohammad Tan, Ker-Kan Tegegne, Masresha Derese Tharwat, Samar Vahabi, Seyed Mohammad Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel Vasankari, Tommi Juhani Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy Vollset, Stein Emil Wang, Yuan-Pang Wiangkham, Taweewat Yonemoto, Naohiro Zangiabadian, Moein Zare, Iman Zemedikun, Dawit T Zheng, Peng Ong, Kanyin Liane Vos, Theo March, Lyn M |
| author2_role | author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| author_facet | Cross, Marita Elliott, James M Culbreth, Garland T Haile, Lydia M Steinmetz, Jaimie D Hagins, Hailey Kopec, Jacek A Brooks, Peter M Woolf, Anthony D Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R Walton, David M Treleaven, Julia M Dreinhoefer, Karsten E Betteridge, Neil Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Aithala, Janardhana P Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alimohamadi, Yousef Amiri, Sohrab Amu, Hubert Antony, Benny Arabloo, Jalal Aravkin, Aleksandr Y Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Atomsa, Gamechu Hunde Azadnajafabad, Sina Azzam, Ahmed Y Baghdadi, Soroush Balogun, Saliu A Balta, Asaminew Birhanu Banach, Maciej Banakar, Morteza Barrow, Amadou Bashiri, Azadeh Bekele, Alehegn Bensenor, Isabela M Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhat, Ajay Nagesh Bilchut, Awraris Hailu Briggs, Andrew M Buchbinder, Rachelle Cao, Chao Chaurasia, Akhilanand Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee Coberly, Kaleb Cousin, Ewerton Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen de Luca, Katie Dehghan, Azizallah Dong, Huan-Ji Ekholuenetale, Michael Elhadi, Muhammed Eshetu, Habitu Birhan Eskandarieh, Sharareh Etaee, Farshid Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis Fares, Jawad Fatehizadeh, Ali Feizkhah, Alireza Ferreira, Manuela L Ferreira, Nuno Fischer, Florian Franklin, Richard Charles Ganesan, Balasankar Gebremichael, Mathewos Alemu Gerema, Urge Gholami, Ali Ghozy, Sherief Gill, Tiffany K Golechha, Mahaveer Goleij, Pouya Golinelli, Davide Graham, Simon Matthew Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin Harlianto, Netanja I Hartvigsen, Jan Hasanian, Mohammad Hassen, Mohammed Bheser Hay, Simon I Hebert, Jeffrey J Heidari, Golnaz Hoveidaei, Amir Human Hsiao, Alexander Kevin Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Iwu, Chidozie C D Jacob, Louis Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar Jin, Yingzhao Jonas, Jost B. Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma Kandel, Himal Khader, Yousef Saleh Khajuria, Himanshu Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Moien AB Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khateri, Sorour Khayat Kashani, Hamid Reza Khonji, Mohammad Saeid Khubchandani, Jagdish Kim, Yun Jin Kisa, Adnan Kolahi, Ali-Asghar Koohestani, Hamid Reza Krishan, Kewal Kuddus, Mohammed Kuttikkattu, Ambily Lasrado, Savita Lee, Yo Han Legesse, Samson Mideksa Lim, Stephen S Liu, Xuefeng Lo, Justin Malih, Narges Manandhar, Shisir Prasad Mathews, Elezebeth Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal Mestrovic, Tomislav Miller, Ted R Mirghaderi, Seyed Peyman Misganaw, Awoke Mohammadi, Esmaeil Mohammed, Shafiu Mokdad, Ali H Momtazmanesh, Sara Moni, Mohammad Ali Mostafavi, Ebrahim Murray, Christopher J L Nair, Tapas Sadasivan Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Oh, In-Hwan Okonji, Osaretin Christabel Owolabi, Mayowa O Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin Pahlevan Fallahy, Mohammad Taha Park, Seoyeon Patel, Jay Pawar, Shrikant Pedersini, Paolo Peres, Mario F P Petcu, Ionela-Roxana Pourahmadi, Mohammadreza Qattea, Ibrahim Ram, Pradhum Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rawaf, Salman Rezaei, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Saeed, Umar Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh Salahi, Saina Sawhney, Monika Schumacher, Austin E Shafie, Mahan Shahabi, Saeed Shahbandi, Ataollah Shamekh, Ali Sharma, Saurab Shiri, Rahman Shobeiri, Parnian Sinaei, Ehsan Singh, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Paramdeep Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna Smith, Amanda E Tabish, Mohammad Tan, Ker-Kan Tegegne, Masresha Derese Tharwat, Samar Vahabi, Seyed Mohammad Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel Vasankari, Tommi Juhani Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy Vollset, Stein Emil Wang, Yuan-Pang Wiangkham, Taweewat Yonemoto, Naohiro Zangiabadian, Moein Zare, Iman Zemedikun, Dawit T Zheng, Peng Ong, Kanyin Liane Vos, Theo March, Lyn M |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Cross, Marita Elliott, James M Culbreth, Garland T Haile, Lydia M Steinmetz, Jaimie D Hagins, Hailey Kopec, Jacek A Brooks, Peter M Woolf, Anthony D Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R Walton, David M Treleaven, Julia M Dreinhoefer, Karsten E Betteridge, Neil Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Aithala, Janardhana P Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alimohamadi, Yousef Amiri, Sohrab Amu, Hubert Antony, Benny Arabloo, Jalal Aravkin, Aleksandr Y Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Atomsa, Gamechu Hunde Azadnajafabad, Sina Azzam, Ahmed Y Baghdadi, Soroush Balogun, Saliu A Balta, Asaminew Birhanu Banach, Maciej Banakar, Morteza Barrow, Amadou Bashiri, Azadeh Bekele, Alehegn Bensenor, Isabela M Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhat, Ajay Nagesh Bilchut, Awraris Hailu Briggs, Andrew M Buchbinder, Rachelle Cao, Chao Chaurasia, Akhilanand Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee Coberly, Kaleb Cousin, Ewerton Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen de Luca, Katie Dehghan, Azizallah Dong, Huan-Ji Ekholuenetale, Michael Elhadi, Muhammed Eshetu, Habitu Birhan Eskandarieh, Sharareh Etaee, Farshid Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis Fares, Jawad Fatehizadeh, Ali Feizkhah, Alireza Ferreira, Manuela L Ferreira, Nuno Fischer, Florian Franklin, Richard Charles Ganesan, Balasankar Gebremichael, Mathewos Alemu Gerema, Urge Gholami, Ali Ghozy, Sherief Gill, Tiffany K Golechha, Mahaveer Goleij, Pouya Golinelli, Davide Graham, Simon Matthew Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin Harlianto, Netanja I Hartvigsen, Jan Hasanian, Mohammad Hassen, Mohammed Bheser Hay, Simon I Hebert, Jeffrey J Heidari, Golnaz Hoveidaei, Amir Human Hsiao, Alexander Kevin Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Iwu, Chidozie C D Jacob, Louis Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar Jin, Yingzhao Jonas, Jost B. Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma Kandel, Himal Khader, Yousef Saleh Khajuria, Himanshu Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Moien AB Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khateri, Sorour Khayat Kashani, Hamid Reza Khonji, Mohammad Saeid Khubchandani, Jagdish Kim, Yun Jin Kisa, Adnan Kolahi, Ali-Asghar Koohestani, Hamid Reza Krishan, Kewal Kuddus, Mohammed Kuttikkattu, Ambily Lasrado, Savita Lee, Yo Han Legesse, Samson Mideksa Lim, Stephen S Liu, Xuefeng Lo, Justin Malih, Narges Manandhar, Shisir Prasad Mathews, Elezebeth Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal Mestrovic, Tomislav Miller, Ted R Mirghaderi, Seyed Peyman Misganaw, Awoke Mohammadi, Esmaeil Mohammed, Shafiu Mokdad, Ali H Momtazmanesh, Sara Moni, Mohammad Ali Mostafavi, Ebrahim Murray, Christopher J L Nair, Tapas Sadasivan Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Oh, In-Hwan Okonji, Osaretin Christabel Owolabi, Mayowa O Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin Pahlevan Fallahy, Mohammad Taha Park, Seoyeon Patel, Jay Pawar, Shrikant Pedersini, Paolo Peres, Mario F P Petcu, Ionela-Roxana Pourahmadi, Mohammadreza Qattea, Ibrahim Ram, Pradhum Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rawaf, Salman Rezaei, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Saeed, Umar Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh Salahi, Saina Sawhney, Monika Schumacher, Austin E Shafie, Mahan Shahabi, Saeed Shahbandi, Ataollah Shamekh, Ali Sharma, Saurab Shiri, Rahman Shobeiri, Parnian Sinaei, Ehsan Singh, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Paramdeep Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna Smith, Amanda E Tabish, Mohammad Tan, Ker-Kan Tegegne, Masresha Derese Tharwat, Samar Vahabi, Seyed Mohammad Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel Vasankari, Tommi Juhani Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy Vollset, Stein Emil Wang, Yuan-Pang Wiangkham, Taweewat Yonemoto, Naohiro Zangiabadian, Moein Zare, Iman Zemedikun, Dawit T Zheng, Peng Ong, Kanyin Liane Vos, Theo March, Lyn M |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-04-01T07:45:56Z 2024-03-31 |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00321-1 26659913 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665991323003211 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/53778 e142-e155 3 6 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | en |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | the Global Burden of Disease Global regional national burden |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| description | BackgroundNeck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. MethodsSystematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. FindingsGlobally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163–253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960–3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165–346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [–1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330–3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600–2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219–322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9–42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing. InterpretationAlthough age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | qu_bb5fa125f445f831ef9aeebd004463c2 |
| identifier_str_mv | 26659913 e142-e155 3 6 |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | qu |
| network_name_str | Qatar University repository |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:qspace.qu.edu.qa:10576/53778 |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| spelling | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021Cross, MaritaElliott, James MCulbreth, Garland THaile, Lydia MSteinmetz, Jaimie DHagins, HaileyKopec, Jacek ABrooks, Peter MWoolf, Anthony DKopansky-Giles, Deborah RWalton, David MTreleaven, Julia MDreinhoefer, Karsten EBetteridge, NeilAbbasifard, MitraAbbasi-Kangevari, ZeinabAddo, Isaac YeboahAdesina, Miracle AyomikunAdnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas SakilahAithala, Janardhana PAlhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa NajiAlimohamadi, YousefAmiri, SohrabAmu, HubertAntony, BennyArabloo, JalalAravkin, Aleksandr YAsghari-Jafarabadi, MohammadAtomsa, Gamechu HundeAzadnajafabad, SinaAzzam, Ahmed YBaghdadi, SoroushBalogun, Saliu ABalta, Asaminew BirhanuBanach, MaciejBanakar, MortezaBarrow, AmadouBashiri, AzadehBekele, AlehegnBensenor, Isabela MBhardwaj, PankajBhat, Ajay NageshBilchut, Awraris HailuBriggs, Andrew MBuchbinder, RachelleCao, ChaoChaurasia, AkhilanandChirinos-Caceres, Jesus LorenzoChristensen, Steffan Wittrup McPheeCoberly, KalebCousin, EwertonDadras, OmidDai, Xiaochende Luca, KatieDehghan, AzizallahDong, Huan-JiEkholuenetale, MichaelElhadi, MuhammedEshetu, Habitu BirhanEskandarieh, ShararehEtaee, FarshidFagbamigbe, Adeniyi FrancisFares, JawadFatehizadeh, AliFeizkhah, AlirezaFerreira, Manuela LFerreira, NunoFischer, FlorianFranklin, Richard CharlesGanesan, BalasankarGebremichael, Mathewos AlemuGerema, UrgeGholami, AliGhozy, SheriefGill, Tiffany KGolechha, MahaveerGoleij, PouyaGolinelli, DavideGraham, Simon MatthewHaj-Mirzaian, ArvinHarlianto, Netanja IHartvigsen, JanHasanian, MohammadHassen, Mohammed BheserHay, Simon IHebert, Jeffrey JHeidari, GolnazHoveidaei, Amir HumanHsiao, Alexander KevinIbitoye, Segun EmmanuelIwu, Chidozie C DJacob, LouisJanodia, Manthan DilipkumarJin, YingzhaoJonas, Jost B.Joshua, Charity EhimwenmaKandel, HimalKhader, Yousef SalehKhajuria, HimanshuKhan, Ejaz AhmadKhan, Moien ABKhatatbeh, Moawiah MohammadKhateri, SorourKhayat Kashani, Hamid RezaKhonji, Mohammad SaeidKhubchandani, JagdishKim, Yun JinKisa, AdnanKolahi, Ali-AsgharKoohestani, Hamid RezaKrishan, KewalKuddus, MohammedKuttikkattu, AmbilyLasrado, SavitaLee, Yo HanLegesse, Samson MideksaLim, Stephen SLiu, XuefengLo, JustinMalih, NargesManandhar, Shisir PrasadMathews, ElezebethMesregah, Mohamed KamalMestrovic, TomislavMiller, Ted RMirghaderi, Seyed PeymanMisganaw, AwokeMohammadi, EsmaeilMohammed, ShafiuMokdad, Ali HMomtazmanesh, SaraMoni, Mohammad AliMostafavi, EbrahimMurray, Christopher J LNair, Tapas SadasivanNejadghaderi, Seyed AriaNzoputam, Ogochukwu JanetOh, In-HwanOkonji, Osaretin ChristabelOwolabi, Mayowa OPacheco-Barrios, KevinPahlevan Fallahy, Mohammad TahaPark, SeoyeonPatel, JayPawar, ShrikantPedersini, PaoloPeres, Mario F PPetcu, Ionela-RoxanaPourahmadi, MohammadrezaQattea, IbrahimRam, PradhumRashidi, Mohammad-MahdiRawaf, SalmanRezaei, NazilaRezaei, NegarSaeed, UmarSaheb Sharif-Askari, FatemehSalahi, SainaSawhney, MonikaSchumacher, Austin EShafie, MahanShahabi, SaeedShahbandi, AtaollahShamekh, AliSharma, SaurabShiri, RahmanShobeiri, ParnianSinaei, EhsanSingh, AmbrishSingh, Jasvinder A.Singh, ParamdeepSkryabina, Anna AleksandrovnaSmith, Amanda ETabish, MohammadTan, Ker-KanTegegne, Masresha DereseTharwat, SamarVahabi, Seyed MohammadValadan Tahbaz, SahelVasankari, Tommi JuhaniVenketasubramanian, NarayanaswamyVollset, Stein EmilWang, Yuan-PangWiangkham, TaweewatYonemoto, NaohiroZangiabadian, MoeinZare, ImanZemedikun, Dawit TZheng, PengOng, Kanyin LianeVos, TheoMarch, Lyn Mthe Global Burden of DiseaseGlobalregionalnational burdenBackgroundNeck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. MethodsSystematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. FindingsGlobally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163–253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960–3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165–346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [–1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330–3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600–2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219–322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9–42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing. InterpretationAlthough age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.Elsevier2024-04-01T07:45:56Z2024-03-31Articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00321-126659913https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665991323003211http://hdl.handle.net/10576/53778e142-e15536enhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:qspace.qu.edu.qa:10576/537782024-07-23T07:49:08Z |
| spellingShingle | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Cross, Marita the Global Burden of Disease Global regional national burden |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| topic | the Global Burden of Disease Global regional national burden |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00321-1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665991323003211 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/53778 |