Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, f...
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2021
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100068 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590113321000225 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/46361 |
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| _version_ | 1857415085988773888 |
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| author | Houssein H., Ayoub |
| author2 | Mumtaz, Ghina R. Seedat, Shaheen Makhoul, Monia Chemaitelly, Hiam Abu-Raddad, Laith J. |
| author2_role | author author author author author |
| author_facet | Houssein H., Ayoub Mumtaz, Ghina R. Seedat, Shaheen Makhoul, Monia Chemaitelly, Hiam Abu-Raddad, Laith J. |
| author_role | author |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Houssein H., Ayoub Mumtaz, Ghina R. Seedat, Shaheen Makhoul, Monia Chemaitelly, Hiam Abu-Raddad, Laith J. |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2021-11-23 2023-07-27T07:08:49Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100068 Ayoub, H. H., Mumtaz, G. R., Seedat, S., Makhoul, M., Chemaitelly, H., & Abu-Raddad, L. J. (2021). Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020. Global Epidemiology, 3, 100068. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590113321000225 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/46361 3 2590-1133 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | en |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | SARS-CoV-2 COVID Coronavirus Epidemiology Severity Fatality Exposure Prevalence |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| description | We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17–14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59–0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95–46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21–11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73–19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10–4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30–9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12–179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52–35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60–70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | qu_d018528440c2372596fe2bb43fc39978 |
| identifier_str_mv | Ayoub, H. H., Mumtaz, G. R., Seedat, S., Makhoul, M., Chemaitelly, H., & Abu-Raddad, L. J. (2021). Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020. Global Epidemiology, 3, 100068. 3 2590-1133 |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | qu |
| network_name_str | Qatar University repository |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:qspace.qu.edu.qa:10576/46361 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| spelling | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020Houssein H., AyoubMumtaz, Ghina R.Seedat, ShaheenMakhoul, MoniaChemaitelly, HiamAbu-Raddad, Laith J.SARS-CoV-2COVIDCoronavirusEpidemiologySeverityFatalityExposurePrevalenceWe aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17–14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59–0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95–46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21–11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73–19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10–4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30–9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12–179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52–35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60–70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates.- Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar - 12S-0216-190094, 9-040-3-008. - UK Research and Innovation - ES/P010873/1. - Qatar National Research Fund - Qatar National Library provided fund for open access.Elsevier2023-07-27T07:08:49Z2021-11-23Articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100068Ayoub, H. H., Mumtaz, G. R., Seedat, S., Makhoul, M., Chemaitelly, H., & Abu-Raddad, L. J. (2021). Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020. Global Epidemiology, 3, 100068.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590113321000225http://hdl.handle.net/10576/4636132590-1133enhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:qspace.qu.edu.qa:10576/463612024-07-23T13:54:02Z |
| spellingShingle | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 Houssein H., Ayoub SARS-CoV-2 COVID Coronavirus Epidemiology Severity Fatality Exposure Prevalence |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 |
| title_full | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 |
| title_fullStr | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 |
| title_short | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 |
| title_sort | Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 COVID Coronavirus Epidemiology Severity Fatality Exposure Prevalence |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100068 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590113321000225 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/46361 |