Average CRPS values computed based on the discrepancy between the posterior predictive values corresponding to several model inference settings and the case-counts recorded up to Sept. 15, 2020. The best forecasts arise when parameters are estimated for each county independently (last column), but the 3-county joint inversion is close behind (second column).

<p>Average CRPS values computed based on the discrepancy between the posterior predictive values corresponding to several model inference settings and the case-counts recorded up to Sept. 15, 2020. The best forecasts arise when parameters are estimated for each county independently (last colum...

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التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
المؤلف الرئيسي:	Cosmin Safta (11105442) (author)
مؤلفون آخرون:	Jaideep Ray (11105439) (author), Wyatt Bridgman (21865902) (author)
منشور في:	2025
الموضوعات:	Biotechnology Ecology Infectious Diseases Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified three adjacent counties simple anomaly detector anomaly detector based accommodate multiple units various areal units model parameters condition calibrated epidemic model single areal unit div >< p detecting outbreaks using data comprises time areal unit epidemiological model symptomatic patients results suggest relies solely rates outperforms posterior distribution originally designed new mexico high variance framed within findings show field estimation field </ epidemiological dynamics count data conventional algorithm bayesian context
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