The proportion of all models (black) and best-in-class models (red) sMOA outperforms in MAE (top) and WIS (bottom) if the validation window ranged from August 2020 through the x-axis date.

<p>sMOA outperforms the majority of all models and best-in-class models if the validation date cut off is between October 2020 and March 2023. Directly before October 2020, there was a dip in incidence case counts that sMOA failed to forecast accurately that caused the initial lower performanc...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Alexander C. Murph (21587737) (author)
Other Authors:	G. Casey Gibson (21587740) (author), Elizabeth B. Amona (21587743) (author), Lauren J. Beesley (6836693) (author), Lauren A. Castro (8463561) (author), Sara Y. Del Valle (7465541) (author), Dave Osthus (3216351) (author)
Published:	2025
Subjects:	Medicine Ecology Inorganic Chemistry Infectious Diseases Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified synthetically generated segments maintain high accuracy instead matching segments developing versatile approaches observed time series local behavior observed emerging global epidemic 19 forecasting hub new method inspired historical time series div >< p time series data time series local behaviors historical data emerging epidemics 19 pandemic synthetic method synthetic </ strengthening preparedness possible </ performing 78 past decade particularly evident parametric nature novel pandemics model circumvents known values highly adaptable gained popularity early stages disease trends directly follow competitive performance broad range best match
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The proportion of all models (black) and best-in-class models (red) sMOA outperforms in MAE (top) and WIS (bottom) if the validation window ranged from August 2020 through the x-axis date.

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