Performance of unweighted and weighted ensemble approaches at the national level.

<p>Left: WIS (averaged over time points and horizons). For reference, vertical lines indicate the performance of the best individual model with (dotted line) an without post-processing (solid line; in both cases RIVM). Middle: WIS (averaged over time points) by nowcast horizon. Right: Coverage...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	André Victor Ribeiro Amaral (20818265) (author)
Other Authors:	Daniel Wolffram (16819669) (author), Paula Moraga (845998) (author), Johannes Bracher (9106125) (author)
Published:	2025
Subjects:	Genetics Immunology Cancer Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified unweighted nowcast ensembles specific challenges arise rather consistent improvements infectious disease surveillance forecast interval coverage probabilistic nowcasting methods find modest improvement assess current trends 19 hospitalization data different probabilistic nowcasts weighted ensemble nowcasts weighted combination ensemble building different models xlink "> weather forecasting substantial challenge simple methods retrospective corrections resulting biases reporting delays recent comparison real time natural extension methods lead individual models incidence data improving upon g ., frequently subject favorable results constantly revised considered models building upon
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Performance of unweighted and weighted ensemble approaches at the national level.

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