Illustration of the expected epidemic transitions for each of the seven NHS regions between June 2020 and December 2021 alongside the times-of-detection for three consecutive threshold exceedances.

Illustration of the expected epidemic transitions for each of the seven NHS regions between June 2020 and December 2021 alongside the times-of-detection for three consecutive threshold exceedances.

<p>The vertical dotted lines show the expected dates when <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> = 1 and the circles, squares and diamonds indicate the time-of-detection for the spatial variance, and variance in hospitalisation-based data. The incidence of new cases an...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Joshua Looker (21390948) (author)
Other Authors:	Kat S. Rock (2633992) (author), Louise Dyson (3160071) (author)
Published:	2025
Subjects:	Medicine Immunology Science Policy Computational Biology Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified predict &# 8216 pharmaceutical measures designed infectious disease systems infectious disease models help improve responses help guide pharmaceutical early warning signals complex dynamical systems derive analytical statistics predict epidemic transitions future modelling analysis different modelling scenarios ews analysis could reported case data corresponding case data using ews analysis case data spatial statistics case reporting transitions correspond anticipate transitions modelling efforts including ews hospitalisation data ews ), xlink "> vital addition upcoming increases united kingdom stochastic simulations public health indirectly observed increasing evidence findings indicate driven analyses catastrophic effects also investigate -) emergence
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